George Osborne told the cabinet yesterday that the economy is "on the right track".
But today's GDP figures suggest otherwise.
The preliminary estimate from the Office for National Statistics suggests that the economy grew by just 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year (significantly lower than the forecast of 0.8 per cent from the Office for Budget Responsibility).
But, if you take into account that the economy shrank by 0.5 per cent in the final quarter of 2010, today's figures indicate that it hasn't grown for six months.
Now, as any GCSE schoolchild will tell you, if the economy shrank by 0.5% and then subsequently grew by 0.5%, this makes the economy smaller than 6 months ago, not the same size!
A reduction by 0.25% to be precise.
Given that we experienced growth of 1.8 per cent over the previous six months, it's not really what one would describe as 'on the right track' and there is now a real possibility that the OBR will downgrade its 2011 growth forecasts for the fourth time.
Happy Days.
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