The Royal Wedding is for mugs

So best wishes to Kate and Will and lets all at least enjoy our day off!

Some analysts predict the wedding will boost tourism and retail sectors, putting an extra £1 billion into the economy.

Hotels are offering royal wedding packages, a brewery is offering a Kiss Me Kate beer, and jewelers big and small cannot push enough replicas of Princess Diana's sapphire and diamond engagement ring.

Among companies selling royal memorabilia - tea towels, commemorative mugs, fine bone china tea sets and Kate and William "paper doll kits" - there is great excitement, with some reporting an increase of up to 40 per cent in sales over last year, mostly to the US.

London expects more than 1 million visitors on the wedding day and up to £50 million in tourist spending. If all attend the wedding, the number would dwarf the 600,000 who lined the streets 30 years ago for the marriage of Charles and Diana.

Tomorrow's wedding is also expected to create television history, with the BBC broadcasting to about 2.5 billion viewers in the US, Asia, Latin America, Europe and the Middle East.

But while the wedding will benefit some businesses, others are not over the moon.

The problem is the timing. Each public holiday typically costs the UK economy £6bn in productivity and overtime payments, according to the Confederation of British Industry business lobby group. But the extra day off, coming between the end of Easter week and the May Day bank holiday, could mean even greater losses; for a small company, this amounts to a shutdown for the period.

Amid rising unemployment, surging inflation and brutal government austerity measures, the extra holiday could not come at a worse time, says the Federation of Small Businesses. It could even knock 1 percentage point off growth this quarter, some economists say.

"The wedding's good for people selling silly mugs but it certainly is not good for my business," says John Newman, who runs a small management company.

With many world leaders and a huge crowd attending the wedding, there are also questions over the cost of security. The government is coy about how much it has to cough up, but the security for the wedding of Prince Charles and Diana in 1981 was estimated to cost about £30m, not adjusted for inflation.

Even though the economic impact is hard to measure the feel-good factor should not be underestimated, some analysts say.

"Extraneous events can increase feelings of economic and other well-being," says Professor Stephen Lea of Exeter University, who specialises in economic psychology.

While many citizens have been directly affected by the recession or fear they will be, Prof Lea believes there are also those who are merely affected by the general sense of doom and gloom.

Good feelings triggered by the wedding could well motivate this group of people to increase their discretionary spending on items such as electronic goods and home improvements - broader consumption that could lift household spending out of the doldrums, he says.

And along with the queen's diamond jubilee and the Olympics next year, VisitBritain believes the fanfare over the wedding is set to create a "bumper couple of years" for the economy and could be the key to a £2bn tourist-driven economic boom.

And that's certainly not be bad for the economy.

Enjoy your weekend!

GSCE maths for the Chancellor..lesson one.

George Osborne told the cabinet yesterday that the economy is "on the right track".

But today's GDP figures suggest otherwise.

The preliminary estimate from the Office for National Statistics suggests that the economy grew by just 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year (significantly lower than the forecast of 0.8 per cent from the Office for Budget Responsibility).

But, if you take into account that the economy shrank by 0.5 per cent in the final quarter of 2010, today's figures indicate that it hasn't grown for six months.

Now, as any GCSE schoolchild will tell you, if the economy shrank by 0.5% and then subsequently grew by 0.5%, this makes the economy smaller than 6 months ago, not the same size!

A reduction by 0.25% to be precise.

Given that we experienced growth of 1.8 per cent over the previous six months, it's not really what one would describe as 'on the right track' and there is now a real possibility that the OBR will downgrade its 2011 growth forecasts for the fourth time.

Happy Days.

.

# 23 Hong Kong Wing Chun

Watch out when you fly Hong Kong Airlines, it seems the airline is making all its cabin crew take kung fu lessons to help them to deal with drunk and unruly passengers.

Hong Kong Airlines said all staff had been invited to undergo training in wing chun - a form of kung fu used in close-range combat - but it was only compulsory for cabin crew, the Sunday Morning Post reported.

The airline had around three incidents involving disruptive passengers every week, said Eva Chan, the carrier's deputy general manager of corporate communication.

Two weeks ago a crew member had to put her martial arts training into practice on a flight from Beijing to Hong Kong.

"One of the passengers was sick but he was probably drunk and felt unwell. The crew member attended to him and she realised her fitness was helping her, especially because the guy was quite heavy," Chan told the newspaper.

Normally, a female cabin crew can't handle a fat guy, especially if he's drunk, but because of the training, she can handle it quite easily."

Wing chun instructor Katherine Cheung said the martial art was ideal for airline crews.

"Wing chun can be used in small, confined spaces so it's suited for an airplane," Cheung said. "It's easy to learn but difficult to master.

The Guardian offers some pictures of the kind of moves the wing-chun-trained cabin crew could be using at 36,000 feet.

Oh, and here's Bruce Lee offering his version

Happy Easter - break out the BBQ

So Happy Easter!

The UK's bonus holiday (Easter, Royal Wedding & May Day) has started, with reports of extra flights leaving for supposed hotspots overseas.

But many people will be flying off to cooler climates, with pullovers a precautionary measure in Corfu and Barcelona, while T-shirt weather continues across the British Isles.

The cooler temperatures along the north Mediterranean coast will see London comfortably hotter at 24C (75F) than Barcelona at 16C and Corfu at 17C .

In the UK, roads to the coast are getting busier, with the Met Office confident that the warm, calm spell will continue well into next week.

The Highways Agency announced the suspension of roadworks at many major sites to help holiday traffic flow, although essential repairs will continue on parts of the M1 and M25. The fire-damaged stretch of the M1 between junctions one and four in London has fully reopened.

Network Rail is optimistic about smoother journeys than last Easter, with less engineering work over the holiday and an estimated 18% more trains running. There will be disruption, however, on the West Coast line in north-west England, the Great Western line and at Liverpool Street station in London, where essential repairs and modernisation need the quieter holiday period to get work done.

Holidaymakers travelling overseas this Easter are expected to top 2 million, in spite of the recession and the balmy climate in the UK, with Amsterdam, Dublin, Paris and Rome the favourite European destinations and New York topping long-haul bookings.

Meanwhile with temperatures expected to bemore than 10c higher than the National Average at this time of the year, Homebase has reported a 20% rise in BBQ sales compared with Easter last year and that it is expecting to sell enough gas to fuel 300,000 barbeques along with enough garden chairs to fill Westminster Abbey 30x over!

Enjoy!

Take the train!

I've just returned from a few days business in Edinburgh and as usual I took the train rather than the plane.

I used to enjoy air travel as part of my job but over recent years flying has become more of a chore than a pleasure - regardless of what class you are sitting in!

Far from being herded from holding pen to holding pen, before squeezing into my tiny and uncomfortable seat, the train gave me more space, I was able to work solid for two hours and was able to wander around and stretch my legs, arriving feeling none the worse and ready for business.

So, with the EU suggesting that fewer flights and more train travel is the way of the future it's interesting to see how European train travel compares against the airlines head-to-head.

For the quick hops through the tunnel, only a fool would now choose to travel by air.

The train is not only faster but cheaper. But for further destinations you need to change trains in Paris or Brussels and the journey time and cost increases. For Cologne, Tours, Lyon, Amsterdam and Marseilles, the train takes up to an hour more than the flight.

And even further down the line to Geneva or Bordeaux the journey time by plane is at least two and a half hours faster with return fares about £20 lower.

If the EU is serious about encouraging railtravel as a sustainable policy for future European travel, then they need to look at the fare structures of the rail networks and low cost airlines to achieve some parity.

Fares quoted are the cheapest returns advertised by Eurostar, and the cheapest returns offered from London airports drawn from a search on www.skyscanner.net.

This comparison was made in todays Telegraph.

TRAIN How long?	How much?	PLANE How long?	How much?
Brussels	2hr 40m (1hr 55m*)	£69	4hr 20m (1hr 10m**)	£153 (with British Airways from Heathrow)
Paris	3 hr (2hr 15m*)	£69	4hr 20m (1hr 10m**)	£78 (with easyJet from Luton)
Cologne	4hr 54m (4hr 9m*)	£96	4hr 30m (1hr 20m**)	£68 (with easyJet from Gatwick)
Amsterdam	5 hr (4hr 15m*)	£114	4hr 15m (1hr 5m**)	£70 with easyJet from Stansted
Tours	5hr 18m (4hr 33m*)	£89	4hr 30m (1hr 20m**)	£78 with Ryanair from Stansted
Lyon	5hr 42m (4hr 57m*)	£109	4hr 50m (1hr 40m**)	£93 easyJet from Gatwick
Marseille	6hr 16m (5hr 31m*)	£119	5hr 15m (2hr 5m**)	£78 with Ryanair from Stansted
La Rochelle	6hr 58m (6hr 13m*)	£109	4hr 30m (1hr 20m**)	£78 with Ryanair from Stansted
Geneva	7hr 13m (6hr 28m*)	£105	4hr 40m (1hr 30m**)	£68 with easyJet from Stansted, Gatwick or Luton
Bordeaux	8hr 2m (6hr 17m*)	£109	4hr 40m (1 hr 30m**)	£77 with easyJet from Luton

India, China, Demographics, Distribution & Consumption Patterns.

The recent PATA 60th anniversary and conference event held at the China World Hotel, Beijing, threw up some interesting sessions on distribution challenges and changing demographics.

Attention was drawn to the huge process of urbanization taking place in both India and China.

Within the next 15 years, China would create cities equal to the size of most in Europe and India was planning to create 115 new airports.

This expansion will see massive increases in the numbers of Indians and Chinese willing, and able, to travel, leading to a major shift in global consumption patterns - even today the average Indian traveling in the U.K spends £792 a week compared to the average American spend in the U.K. of £710 a week.

With 70% of the Indian population under the age of 35, distribution trends will focus on increased marketing through social media and mobile access, while #trending enables industry players to have real-time feedback from consumers, shaping demand, supply, delivery, service, policy and direction.

With a predicted future shortage of skilled workers globally, there is also a real opportunity for India and China.

While in the past, the best hotel chains in India and China would hire expatriates, there will now be a reversal in this trend with the Ritz-Carlton’s and Four Seasons’ turning to India and China for their skilled management.

At the same time Boeing claimed that aviation was going to require training to support the growth in the sector with 126,000 new pilots and a quarter million mechanics need to be recruited and trained!

Spanish Tourism benefits from N African disruptions..

The demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt have resulted (not suprisingly) in an increase in visitors to Spain this winter.

Sol Melia, Vice President, Sebastian Escarrer, announced that tourism in Spain has recovered due mainly to the 'woes' of it's north African competitors.

Tourism during the first quarter grew 2.4% on top of growth of 1.7% during the last quarter of 2010- three times the growth rate of the Spanish economy (0.7 %).

The main cause for the increase was the riots that occurred in Tunisia and Egypt in February and March, which saw foreign tourists choose Spain for their winter sun destination, specifically the Canary Islands .

Spain received 5.5 million tourists in the first two months of the year, representing an increase of 4.5% over the same period of 2010, according to figures provided by the Inbound Tourism Survey (Frontur) .

The UK delivered most tourists despite a decline of 5.6%, followed by Germany and France, with a fall 0.5%, and France, which showed an improvement in arrivals of 4.9%.

In February, international tourist arrivals reached 2.8 million tourists, representing an increase of 4.3% over the same month last year. This is the first growth in this month after two years of regular falls.

The Canaries have been the main destination for international tourists with 32.2% of arrivals (1.7 million tourists), representing an increase of 13.5% compared to same period in 2010.

The Balearics received between January and February, 259,525 tourists, down 2% over the same period of 2010 due to the reduced inflow of German tourists in February.

In the beach sector, domestic businesses and hoteliers have requested a summit with President Zapatero as the summer sun market has to yet recover. The chief executive of Exceltur, Jose Luis Zoreda,stated that “it takes billions of euros to renovate the product of the Spanish coast."

Club Med all-inclusive sales up over 50%..

Last words from me on the all-inclusive debate.

I see all-inclusive resort operator Club Med is reporting double-digit sales increases at many of its European resorts for summer 2011.

Club Med claims that the results are driven by the continued popularity of all-inclusive holidays at the higher end of the market as holidaymakers seek to control their budget.

Percipient marketing from Tui and First Choice then, as the British Retail Consortium record the worst fall in High St sales since their records began in 1995 (BRC sales)

UK visitors to the Club Med resort of Beldi in Turkey were up 59%, Da Balaia in Portugal up 54% and Napitia in Italy up 49%.

Att same time, A YouGov survey undertaken for of Club Med UK of 2,000 people last year showed that almost 60% of Brits intended to spend the same amount or more holidays in 2011 than in 2010. And over 40% of respondents said that going on an all-inclusive holiday was less stressful than booking flights and accommodation separately.

The All-Inclusive debate rumbles on..

The debate over First Choice's decision to move to an all-inclusive platform rumbles on, with AITO now saying that this represents a 'massive blow' to sustainability and campaign group Tourist Concern extending their criticism beyond First Choice to other operators such as Thomas Cook who have 135 all-inclusive properties in its Turkish brochure alone.

Tui have defended their position pointing out that they are only responding to consumer demand, rightly stating that the all-inclusive market has grown by 32% in the last five years and is now becoming the holiday style of choice for cash-strapped Brits and Europeans (my words - not Tui's).

Tui also claim (rightly) to have been working closely with hoteliers to make their programmes more sustainable by working with local suppliers and employing local people under fairer working conditions.

Apropos, my personal experience of all-inclusive is limited albeit a few years ago my wife and I enjoyed an all-inclusive holiday at a first class resort in Jamaica.

The hotel was first class, the food was excellent and the facilities we enjoyed were superb including watersports and tennis. At the same time, as an all-inclusive vacation it also represented excellent value for money.

One one occasion, we did manage to get to Dunns River Falls, on an organised excursion, but with this single exception, my knowledge of the island remains to this day:-

Jamaica = Airport - Resort - (Dunns River Falls) - Resort - Airport -

Never got see Bob Marleys house either...

All Inclusive at First Choice.

So, First Choice has decided to sell only All-Inclusive holidays next year.

Clearly, from a marketing and business point of view this makes perfect sense.

Sales of all-inclusive holidays have increased steadily for the past five years and in First Choice’s case, their all-inclusive market has grown by 32% and is expected to account for 65% of all First Choice sales this year.

From a marketing perspective, the move also clearly now differentiates TUI’s family-focused First Choice holidays from Thomson and its other competitors.

With strong, distinctive brands and clearly differentiated products, TUI can move further away from customers choosing tour operators based on cost alone.

First Choice will go on to promote itself as the number one choice for affordability in hard times. By squeezing more value out of their hoteliers they can help customers worried about their finances to budget better. Not only is that good business sense given the current climate, but it’s also good news for the group’s margins as All-Inclusives drive up average selling prices.

But I’m not so sure the news will be universally welcomed by many resort based businesses already struggling with falling arrivals and the increase in ‘wristband tourism’.

I accept holiday products should respond to demand and cater for all tastes, but as a travel enthusiast, I despair at the thought of any holiday, not matter what the price, spent wholly in an All-Inclusive resort. Going abroad should be about experiencing what the destination has to offer not about spending 1 or 2 weeks eating, sleeping and drinking in a complex and never venturing outside the gates.

More should be done to promote resort facilities and local attractions and to provide sustainable tourism before All Inclusive arrangements kill off some resorts for good.

A possible development could be where destinations pass legislation limiting the percentage of hotel rooms that can be used for All Inclusive guests. I understand Lanzarote has already capped the percentage of all Inclusive rooms at 40% in a bid to save the local economy and provide customers for the many local businesses.

Cricket World Cup - and the winners are..hotels, airlines and pizzas!

So congratulations to India, well deserved winners in a thrilling final. As well as the team out on the field, there are probably going to be a few other winners as well.

I don't have the figures for this year but last year, corporate India spent an estimated Rs 500-600 crore (GBP 7-8 m) on two cricket tournaments — the IPL and the T20 World Cup.

These tournaments and the many new product launches that accompanied them led to consumer products companies increasing their advertising and promotion (A&P ) spends by 25-40 % in the April-June quarter.

Even this year, the quarters ending March and June are going to see higher adspend by most consumer companies , like HUL, ITC, Godrej Consumer and Dabur and the increase in the consumption of alcohol through the season is also going to be of benefit to market leader United Breweries as is Jubilant Foodworks, a quick service restaurant selling the Domino's Pizzas in India.

The Airlines and hotels sectors will also benefit from this. In February, there was a 15% growth — more than the normal growth of 8-10 % — in the arrival of foreign tourists in comparison to last year's February . Besides business travellers, these include cricket fans from different countries. This would be particularly beneficial to companies such as Indian Hotels Company and EIH which are more dependent on foreign tourists for revenues.

At the same time, many airline companies also increased their ticket prices . For instance, domestic airline companies increased their one-way ticket price of Mumbai-Chandigarh flight from a normal day fare to Rs 24,000 from Rs 6,000 on the day of semi-final cricket World Cup match. Companies like SpiceJet, Indigo Airlines and Kingfisher benefited well from this.

Sorry! Mumbai is full.

As the Cricket World Cup Final draws closer, nearly every starred hotel room in the city has been booked.

If you insist, you can be on the waiting list, in case of last-minute cancellations - not that there are likely to be any what with this being a) the first time a host nation has contested the Cricket World Cup final on home soil and that b) Sachin Tendulkar is up for reaching his 100th Century and that c) Muttiah Muralitharan will be bowling his last ever overs in competitive cricket. This is India and this is cricket after all.

"The position is extremely tight. We don't even have enough rooms for prominent guests," said Kamlesh Barot, president, Hotels & Restaurants Association Western India (HRAWI) which has a membership of over 1,200 hotels in the western region of Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat.

There are around 9,000 rooms in star-rated hotels in Mumbai. According to hotel industry sources, even the approximately 11,000 hotel rooms in the unorganized sector have been booked.

"There are waiting lists. In case of last-minute cancellations, people will be accommodated," Barot said.

Guests from across the country and even from abroad are making a beeline to the city's hotels. Hotel industry sources said it was high time a city like Mumbai expanded its capacity of hosting guests by increasing the number of rooms.

"The availability of 9,000 rooms in star-rated hotels is very low for the financial capital. Cities like NYC, Los Angeles and London have abundant resources for tourists and guests," a senior corporate official who travels frequently across prominent cities said.

A senior government official said the guests, including major corporates, who had booked stands and pavilions at the Wankhede, had made bulk bookings. "There is no option for others but to wait or they can go to hotels in the unorganized sector, including lodges," said the official who could not book rooms for his guests.

My money is on India by the way. And for Tendulkar to get his 100th century..