Libya - What Next?

After an overnight push into Tripoli, the rebel National Transitional Council (NTC) is poised to take control of the capital and the country.

But whether this group of former exiles, military officers, tribal leaders, human-rights lawyers, and ordinary Libyan citizens can actually govern the country effectively is another question?

Unlike the situations on Egypt and Tunisia, there has never been a history of democracy or government institutions in Libya and therefore any path to a 'normal democracy' will be all the more difficult - since they will have to start from scratch.

It will be up to Mustafa Abdul Jalil, the chairman of the NTC, to get the country back on track. He is a former minister of justice under Gaddafi's government but he has little experience in the kind of national politics he will be faced with if Libya is to emerge successfully from this.

International powers have recognised the NTC as the legitimate Government of Libya but it will have to act quickly reconcile the nations differences and begin reconstruction!

Security

The first and most important task, following the overthrow of Gaddaffi will be to restore security. Tens of thousands of people have armed themselves with rifles, handguns, artillery and mechanised vehicles looted from arms depots. Borders are not properly monitored and there is a risk that some militant groups or tribal factions will try to wrest control during this unstable period.

Inflation

Economic stability is also a concern - the price of a bag of flour, which used to cost 5 dinars (US$4.16), is now selling for more than 70 dinars. A five-litre tank of petrol, normally 4 dinars, is now about 60 dinars.

Oil

Libya of course, has oil. Until the recent fighting, it produced 2 per cent of the world's oil and had amassed billions of dollars that were invested around the world. With a population of just two million, Libya could be one of the richest countries in the world. But fighting has reduced exports to just a fraction and much of the country's savings abroad has been frozen by countries trying to put pressure on the Gaddafi regime. International oil companies have sent in technical teams to assess how quickly refineries can be restarted and how badly facilities have been damaged during the fighting.

But the presence of oil (lots of it) doesn't guarantee prosperity for all. There is a pretty good chance that oil money is going to be badly distributed or misspent, that will benefit the few, rather than the many.

The Future

In the coming days, Mr Jalil, the head of the NTC, will for the first time have to deal with a country that was largely unified against a dictator, but could become equally divided over the what happens next and who takes control. The first dispute could be over who deserves the credit for actually ousting Gaddafi - the assault on Tripoli was led by rebels from western Libya - a relatively new group in the six-month uprising and there is no guarantee this group will accept the leadership of the NTC from Benghazi.

Difficult times indeed.

Gaddafi, Libya and the arms trade

As the UN Security Council give the go ahead to impose a "no fly" zone over Libya, it really is no surprise to learn that the UK has done much to help Gaddafi's forces fly and bomb in the first place.

In 2005, the UK licensed the sale of £29.5m worth of “military transport aircraft” to the colonel; and in 2009 and 2010 licensed the sale of “bombing computers” and “military aircraft ground equipment” too.

In addition, between 2005 and 2007, sales of armoured all-wheel drive vehicles, armoured personnel carriers, night vision goggles and water cannon got the go-ahead.

And some of the biggest shipments didn’t even help boost British manufacturing. In 2007 a job lot of “anti-riot shields, body armour, anti-riot guns, crowd control ammunition, smoke ammunition, tear gas/irritant ammunition, smoke hand grenades & CS hand grenades” were licensed for export to Libya by British businessmen. The materials, however, were made in Serbia.

In 2005, a £41m package of battlefield weapons, including heavy machine guns, armour for tanks, day and night sights for weapons and military image intensifier equipment, originally from the Ukraine, was also licensed.

The oddest export, however, was licensed between July and September last year when the Foreign Office approved the sale of what it describes as “spacecraft”....??